← Back | January 2026

AI Trends & Research Notes

Compiled from podcasts, articles, and research feeds.

01 // DEVELOPER TOOLS

Claude Code & The Vibe Coding Revolution

The term "vibe coding" - describing projects in natural language instead of code - has moved from novelty to mainstream. Claude Code, Anthropic's terminal-based coding agent (February 2025), is at the center of this shift.

Key Findings

  • Claude Code shipped 176 updates in 2025, from beta to v2.0
  • Claude Opus 4.5 achieved 80.9% SWE-bench accuracy - first model to break 80%
  • Anthropic built "Cowork" entirely with Claude Code in 1.5 weeks
  • Context engineering as the unifying theme: CLAUDE.md, Plan Mode, Subagents

"The developers thriving aren't blindly trusting AI output. They're learning to be architects: defining intent, setting constraints, reviewing work."

Sources: Axios | VentureBeat | Nathan Lambert

02 // AUTONOMY

AI Agents: From Automation to Autonomy

2025 was about AI assisting developers. 2026 is about AI acting as developers.

$50B
Market by 2030
40%
Enterprise apps with agents (2026)
45.8%
CAGR growth

Top Frameworks (January 2026)

  • LangChain/LangGraph - Most widely adopted, visual graph-based workflows
  • AutoGen (Microsoft) - Multi-agent collaboration with conversational planning
  • CrewAI - Team-based agent collaboration
  • Semantic Kernel - Enterprise-focused, Azure/M365 integration

"The governance challenge isn't technical - it's organizational. Who owns an agent's decisions? What's the liability model?"

Sources: ML Mastery | Voiceflow | Salesmate

03 // SAFETY

AI Safety: The Control Problem Gets Real

MI5 warned about "potential future risks from non-human, autonomous AI systems which may evade human oversight and control." This isn't science fiction anymore.

The Two-Sided Problem

Technical Control: Even if we knew how to control an ASI, we lack political institutions to ensure AGI/ASI power isn't abused by humans against humans.

Instrumental Convergence: AIs pursuing goals may develop instrumental subgoals like acquiring power and resources. They've already been shown to emergently develop such goals.

"The alignment problem isn't just about making AI 'nice' - it's about ensuring distributed control. A perfectly aligned AI controlled by a single entity is still a catastrophic risk."

Sources: CAIS | Nature | House of Lords

04 // MEMORY

Context Graphs & AI Memory

Traditional RAG is showing its limits. The move to graph-based, temporal memory systems is accelerating.

Key Technologies

  • Graphiti - Temporally-aware knowledge graphs for AI agents in dynamic environments. Incremental updates without batch recomputation.
  • MemOS - Memory Operating System with "MemCubes", lifecycle control, graph-structured multimodal memory.
  • Cognee - Cognitive memory layer combining graphs with vector embeddings.

"The Model Context Protocol (MCP) is emerging as a foundational layer. Context engineering is becoming as important as model selection."

Sources: Neo4j | Graphiti GitHub | Zep

05 // INFRASTRUCTURE

Personal AI Infrastructure

Daniel Miessler's PAI framework is the most sophisticated public approach to building personalized AI systems.

TELOS Framework

TELOS = structured self-knowledge that AI can actually use: goals, beliefs, strategies, what you're working toward.

Problem solved: Generic AI assistants treat every request as isolated. TELOS gives context for effective help.

Architecture

  • USER customizations: CONTACTS.md, TELOS folder, TECHSTACK.md, SECURITY.md
  • SYSTEM infrastructure: Architecture docs, Memory System, Hook System
  • Packs: Self-contained, AI-installable capability bundles

Sources: Daniel Miessler | GitHub | TELOS

06 // WORK

AI & The Future of Work

The numbers are getting clearer - and they're sobering.

40%
of global jobs exposed to AI-driven change (IMF)
+78M
Net new jobs 2025-2030 (WEF: 170M created, 92M displaced)
2M
Manufacturing workers replaced by 2026 (MIT)
12-14%
Workers may need to switch occupations by 2030

Who's Most Exposed?

Unlike past automation (blue-collar work), LLMs target higher-wage, educated professions:

Writers, PR specialists, legal secretaries, accountants, auditors, customer service, programmers

"The 'net positive jobs' narrative hides massive individual disruption. Someone losing their job doesn't care that someone else in a different country got a new one."

Sources: IMF | Goldman Sachs | TechCrunch

07 // GOVERNANCE

AI Regulation: The Year of Enforcement

2026 is when AI regulation gets teeth.

EU AI Act Timeline

  • Aug 2024: Entered into force
  • Feb 2025: Prohibited practices, AI literacy active
  • Aug 2025: GPAI model obligations
  • Aug 2026: FULL APPLICATION - high-risk systems, conformity assessment
  • Aug 2027: High-risk AI in regulated products

Penalties

Up to EUR 35 million or 7% of global turnover

"The EU AI Act will be the GDPR of AI - the 'Brussels Effect 2.0'. Non-EU companies will have to comply to access the market."

Sources: EU AI Act | CFR | MetricStream

08 // INVESTMENT

The AI Bubble Question

Is it 1999 or 2007? The debate is heating up.

$500B+
Annual US AI CapEx (2026-27)
$3T
Required by end of decade (Moody's)
95%
Organizations getting zero ROI (MIT)

Counter-Arguments

  • AI infrastructure funded by $200B+ annual mega cap free cash flow (not debt)
  • JPMorgan analysis: Doesn't meet classic bubble criteria
  • Strong profits suggest selective correction, not systemic collapse

"The next 18 months will reveal whether this infrastructure buildout becomes lasting innovation or one of the largest capital misallocations in history."

Sources: CIO | The Register | KKR | BlackRock

// SYNTHESIS

Cross-Cutting Themes

Context Engineering > Prompt Engineering

The shift from "how do I ask AI?" to "what does AI know about me?"

Governance Gap

Technical capabilities are outpacing governance frameworks - both corporate and regulatory

The Entry-Level Paradox

AI helps experienced workers more than beginners, but beginners are the ones losing jobs

Infrastructure vs. Application

Massive investment in compute infrastructure, unclear ROI on applications

Security Imperative

Every AI capability creates new attack surface - agentic AI especially